Warung Bebas
Showing posts with label fear. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fear. Show all posts

Monday, June 25, 2012

Nervous UK investors make a dash for cash

Thousands of nervous investors are shunning shares as the financial crisis drags on.

Family sheltering their savings
Investors opting for the safety of cash amid the economic debt crisis Photo: Howard McWilliam


British investors are making a dash for cash as the eurozone turmoil shows no sign of abating. Stockbrokers, fund providers and investment managers all say that investors with Sipps (self-invested personal pensions) and Isas are keeping their powder dry by investing in cash rather than stocks and shares.
At the end of May, one leading fund broker, Bestinvest, said 75pc of the money invested by its clients went straight into cash as the uncertainty around Spanish banks and a Greek default put investors off.
Last month Fidelity's Fundsnetwork said 36pc of all investments went into cash funds, compared with an average of just 3pc, while Skandia said twice as much money was invested in cash in May as in April.
Barclays' investment management arm has also reported increased demand from investors to move money into cash. Oliver Gregson, an investment manager at the bank, said it had been a year of two halves.
"Until March we saw investors being significantly 'risk on', with large flows into equities and other assets. Japan and the US were particularly popular," he said.
"However, in the past three months money has been coming out of markets, and deposits into cash are up."
Mr Gregson added that cash was the only asset class that could fulfil the remit set to him by many clients at the moment: not to lose capital.
Such is the market uncertainty that Barclays is allocating a substantial 45pc of low-risk investors' portfolios to cash. Move up the risk appetite scale and the proportion is reduced to 12pc for those who want moderate risk and 7pc for those who have high tolerance.
Barclays uses a mixture of floating-rate notes, short-term bonds and instant-access accounts for its clients' cash allocation – with at least half of the money in instant-access accounts for liquidity purposes.
Mark Dampier of Hargreaves Lansdown, the advisory firm, said cash was the more attractive asset for investors right now.
"While many cash accounts fail to beat the rate of inflation, at least your capital is protected if you keep it in cash," he said. "It may be an unpopular view among advisers, but the markets can lose you money."
Mr Dampier added that although fixed-rate accounts might offer a greater return on your money than the "cash park" facilities found on fund supermarket platforms, the most important thing about today's market conditions was keeping your assets liquid.
Cash parks allow investors to "park" their cash before investing it in an Isa, protecting its tax-free status and buying the individual more time to choose which fund to invest in. You can then return to the investment platform when you consider there is a worthy investment opportunity and transfer your money into a stock or fund without losing its tax-efficient status.
The cash park on the Hargreaves Lansdown platform pays 0.25pc for deposits of more than £50,000, 0.1pc for less. Fidelity Fundsnetwork's cash park facility pays Bank Rate minus 0.2 percentage points – currently 0.3pc. Bestinvest's facility pays 0.25pc on deposits of more than £20,000, but nothing for smaller sums.
Mr Dampier said: "The market moves so much at the moment that there may be a buying opportunity today that has passed in a week. If your cash is locked away in a 30-day notice account, that is no good," he said.
"Yes, you may not get an inflation-beating return in the cash park, but your capital is protected and your portfolio liquid."
While savers' fears about investing in the market are well founded, Adrian Lowcock of Bestinvest urged them to steel their nerve if they could.
"There is no doubt that the uncertainty in Europe, particularly around the Greek elections, has put investors off. It is important that, if you do put cash aside in an Isa or Sipp while waiting to invest, you actually take action and invest it. Don't forget about it," he said.
"It is human nature not to act in times of crisis. Ultimately when investing they buy high and sell low, when in fact they should be looking for the longer term and buying on weakness, not waiting for a rebound."
The euro crisis has hit this year's Isa investors hard and their caution is understandable. Last week The Daily Telegraph's Your Money section disclosed that many savers will have seen as much as 25pc wiped off the value of their fund in just three months as global economic fears intensified.
Several of the biggest and most popular funds have been hardest hit. Aberdeen Emerging Markets, for example, was one of the best-selling Isas in the run-up to the end of the tax year. But anyone who invested £10,000 in mid-March would now be sitting on a fund worth £9,156, according to Morningstar.
An investor who bought the popular JP Morgan Natural Resources fund would have seen a £10,000 investment fall by almost £2,500 to just £7,683 – which means that the fund needs to climb by more than 30pc from here just for savers to break even.
And there is little sign of relief on the horizon despite the Greek election result, which did not rule out the threat of the country exiting the euro.
Fund managers are in a cautious mood, too. A survey of 260 asset managers across the globe by Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that cash positions rose to 5.3pc in June, levels similar to those seen at the height of the financial crisis in January 2009 and the highest since March 2003 and December 2008.

Falling sipp rates

The rates paid on cash by Sipp providers have come in for criticism in the past – last year several financial advisers branded them as "unacceptable".
Investors who choose to keep Sipp allowances in cash frequently earn Bank Rate (0.5pc) or less; the average rate is just 0.75pc, according to Investec Bank.
With inflation still riding high at 2.8pc, this gives negative real returns for hundreds of thousands of pension investors.
Advisers said that on average investors held almost 10pc of their Sipp in cash. Investors are allowed to deposit £50,000 or 100pc of their salary a year into a pension, whichever is the lower. This means that potentially £5,000 a year of pension savings is guaranteed to be eroded by inflation.
The average amount of cash held in a Sipp is £39,000, Investec said, with some investors having as much as £50,000 in cash – built up over years of pension contributions.
Lionel Ross of Investec said: "The stagnant Bank Rate is having a knock-on effect on the rates paid on the cash element of Sipps. Advisers are now waking up to the need to challenge their current cash account provider to ensure that their clients are getting the highest possible returns on their deposits, which should in turn enhance overall pension fund performance.
"Given ongoing market volatility, investors, particularly those nearing retirement, are increasing their cash allocation. However, it is essential that they check that this money is held in an account paying a competitive rate of interest."
Around £90bn is held in Sipp accounts nationwide.
Not all Sipp cash rates are bad, however. Investec's own offering pays 2.25pc for sums of £25,000 or more. James Hay Partnership pays between 1.4pc and 2.9pc, and Hargreaves Lansdown said it offered fixed deals paying up to 2.5pc for Sipp holders who wanted to hold cash for three months or more.
But Darius McDermott of Chelsea Financial Services warned investors to avoid cash funds. "There are funds that invest in cash or cash equivalents but other than providing more of a 'safe haven' for your money, as they invest across more than one financial institution, they offer little incentive at the moment. Most are returning only in the region of the Bank Rate so you'd be better off in a bog-standard savings account," he said.
Moneyfacts, the financial information service, said a higher-rate taxpayer would need to find an account paying at least 4.7pc to negate the impact of tax and inflation. However, there are few accounts available that will pay this much, meaning that once people have exhausted their Isa allowance they will struggle.
Basic-rate taxpayers have more luck, with 210 accounts that overcome both the effect of inflation and the taxman's cut by paying 3.7pc or more.
Birmingham Midshires has a three-year fixed-rate bond that pays 4pc and can be opened with a deposit of just £1. Secure Trust Bank's five-year fixed-rate cash bond requires a larger deposit of £1,000 but pays an impressive 4.45pc.
The best one-year bond on the market is from Cahoot and pays 3.6pc. For instant access go to santander.co.uk – the bank's online saver account pays a market-leading 3.2pc and can be opened with £1.

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Developing Your Emotional Intelligence for the Next Level




by Rande Howell 06-05-2012



Most traders wake up in an emotion, never having seen the tell-tale signs of how an emotion takes over perception and runs a trader's thinking. Yet, the emotion was hiding in plain site - it is the trader's blindness that led them into a decision-making ambush. Working with emotions is not optional in the life of a trader. A trader’s lack of understanding of emotions and how they work is a major obstacle in trading performance, and it will stay that way until the trader learns to deal with emotions effectively. Most traders do not notice an emotion (fear, greed, or euphoria) until it has already corrupted their mindset and hijacked their capacity to think clearly. By the time the trader notices the "feeling" of an emotion, it is too late. When you (the trader) “feel” the emotion, it is already coursing as chemistry in your body and brain and your thinking is compromised in whatever direction the emotion is taking you.

When this happens, there is no way to put the brakes on the emotion and return to clear thinking. The best solution at this moment is let the emotional chemistry “burn” itself out so you can come back to your senses. (You can accomplish this by getting away from trading - i.e. take a walk, go exercise, go for a run – anything that accelerates the burn of the emotional chemistry in the body). But, it does not have to be this way. Let’s take a look at emotions in trading and discover how it is possible to build a path to emotional mastery.

What is an Emotion?

First, emotions are not feelings, although feeling is an element of an emotion. Emotions are not touchy-feely – they are biological. Emotions take over psychology and thinking. They are built to provoke the body and mind into specific forms of action based on the motivation of the emotion. This is why managing them is so important in trading. 

Fear, for instance, is built to avoid threat – both biological and psychological. The emotional brain, once provoked to fear, will manhandle the thinking mind to create explanations that support what the emotional brain believes. This is because all thinking is emotional-state-dependent. The key to successful state of mind management, therefore, is emotional state management. 

Second, an emotion (being biological in its nature) is defined as any disruption to a standard sensorial pattern that the brain has already established. That standard sensorial pattern is often referred to as your "comfort zone". So, as you are trading, if any deviation occurs from a pre-existing homeostasis, an emotion pops up to deal with the disruption.

Now what does that look like in trading? The movement from evaluating set-ups to committing to an entry point is just such a disruption to standard sensorial pattern. Suddenly your cozy comfort zone is disrupted and you are committing capital to risk. For many traders, this represents threat. And, if you do not develop your EQ (emotional intelligence), it will not matter how much you KNOW about trading and risk management while in the safety of your comfort zone, your trader’s hand still freezes and you cannot pull the trigger because the emotional brain dictates how the thinking mind will think. Here, the emotional brain perceives the uncertainty of putting capital to risk as a threat and jumps to fear and hesitation.

Becoming emotionally intelligent is essential to the development of successful traders. Learning how an emotion operates will give the trader an edge in managing his emotions and mastering the mind that he brings to trading.


Elements of an Emotion

Emotions are composed of a number of interlocking elements. The important thing to understand about emotions is that they are biological and they take over your psychology. Learning how emotions operate is the first step to mastering them. Here are the elements of an emotion:

Arousal. First, there is a change in the status of a trade which triggers an emotion based on the trader’s perception of threat (fear) or opportunity (euphoria or greed). What happens next is that the body begins to ramp up for action. Breathing changes. It stops or begins to become shallow and rapid. Muscles tense, getting ready to spring into action. The heart begins to race or miss a beat. You are now experiencing the arousal of an emotion. It is building, readying the body for action. This is the place you want to catch the emotion – before it builds up a head of steam and becomes an out-of-control locomotive. As the emotion’s engine revs up, it reaches a critical mass. It flips an internal switch and it springs into action. It is no longer building up – the switch is flipped and the emotion activates the feeling component.

Feeling. Feeling is the subjective experience of the emotion and is where most traders notice the emotion. However, the feeling element of the emotion is also the chemistry of the emotion coursing through your body. This chemistry is what you “feel”, and this is when the emotion contaminates thinking. In the life of emotional activation, the emotion can easily take 45 minutes to an hour for the chemistry to burn out if it is no longer being stimulated – not good for the trading mind. So you will no longer be in your “right” mind for trading if you are experiencing fear or euphoria. Both fear and euphoria set the trader up for skewed thinking. The feeling element of the emotion produces a belief in the certainty of whatever direction the emotion is provoking you to go.

Motivation. Motivation is where the emotion is taking you. Remember, emotions are biological and are about producing action in a particular direction. Those directions are called emotional motivation and are either avoid (run, hide, freeze, submit), attack, or approach. Feeling and motivation conspire to sweep the trader’s mind away. If you have ever been reviewing your trading day and wondered what happened to your right mind in the heat of trading – this is it. Motivation provided the direction of the e-motion and the feeling provided the certainty of the belief that hijacked your thinking mind.

Meaning. Meaning is the self-belief concerning the trader’s adequacy, worth, mattering, or power to manage uncertainty that becomes attached to the emotion. You can declare that you believe something, but that is only cheerleading. The proof of what you really believe about your capacity to manage uncertainty will be found in your trading account. Most traders avoid looking into their self-limiting beliefs (no matter how boldly their trading account points to them) because it creates discomfort in their comfort zone or current organization of self. This lack of courage is what keeps the trader locked in his self-limiting beliefs, that negatively impact his trading account.

Pre-disposition. Genetic pre-disposition is simply beyond the scope of this article. We are all wired with certain potentialities – it is what we do with our potential that matters, though.




Freedom of Emotion, Not Freedom From Emotion

Emotion is unavoidable in trading. The EQ skill is learning how to use emotions to produce effective states of mind for peak-performance trading. As a trader develops his EQ, he learns to regulate reactive emotionally-based pattern. The first step is to volitionally alter the arousal element of the problem emotion through breathing and tension release. By doing this, he is able to better manage the intensity of the emotion so that it does not activate the feeling state of a reactive emotion while trading. (If that occurs, the trader’s mind is compromised.) 

As he gains the emotional competence to regulate the emotion, he is able to get to the door of the trading mind. This is where he can use new-found courage to examine the beliefs that limits his capacity to manage the uncertainty of probability. Here is where meaning can be transformed - first, by discovering his inherent worth as a human being. This is really important. It is at this point that he can focus on his trading as a performance rather than a characterization of his being. At this point in the journey of a trader, he is re-organizing the meaning of self that is embedded into the emotional structure.

Here, the trader can begin to use emotion as information or data because he is no longer afraid of what he might find out about himself. He begins to see what is manifesting in his trading with far less avoidance and denial and he uses this information to design the mind that trades. No longer does he try to avoid the discomfort of reactive emotions and the self-limiting beliefs that lurk behind them. Instead, he is able to use the emotion as information that tells him where he needs to look for self-limiting patterns. He knows that emotions will lead him to what he needs to know about himself so he can grow as a trader. Fear has been transformed into reverence, vigilance, and concern. These emotional states that give rise to a peak performance state of mind are rooted in discipline, courage, patience, and impartiality.




http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/13312-developing-your-emotional-intelligence-next-level.html





This is the opportunity facing you today. You could be at the forefront of the largest gains when the tide turns.


Sure, there may be volatility in the market for some months ahead. Years even. But this should NOT stop you from taking control of your financial destiny.
Your money might survive being mothballed in a bank account, gathering a feeble 1% or 2% per year. But unless you can get a pay rise or a windfall sometime soon, nobody is going to help you grow your wealth in the many alternatives available.
At some point, the markets will rise again, and – in our view – those who are already invested in rock-solid shares should make serious gains.
I'm old enough to remember all sorts of stock market crashes and periods of underperformance -- the causes and durations of which are long since lost in the mists of time.
What I do know is that markets eventually recover, and carry on heading upwards – carrying our stocks, and investment wealth, with them.
This is the opportunity facing you today.

You could be at the forefront of the largest gains
when the tide turns

The majority of private investors are too scared by what happened in the last few years to invest right now.
But looking backwards and doing nothing is not the way to take control of your financial destiny.
Think of it this way. You'd be crazy to drive your car whilst spending all of your time looking in the rear-view mirror.
And yet many people invest like this. They assume that because 2011 was a tough year for the world's stock markets, 2012 will be just as bad.
But the financial world doesn't work that way, especially the stock market. The past is... well... history.
The tide turns when everyone least expects it. The more obvious the market's direction seems, the greater the odds that you're wrong.
As Floyd Norris of The New York Times has pointed out that, for the past half-century, the market has moved in 15-year cycles where returns swing from spectacular to near-zero.

In 1964, the average real return over the preceding 15 years was a stellar 15.6% a year.
Then it flipped. By 1979, the previous 15 years produced a negative real return.
Then it flipped again.
By the late 1990s, 15-year average returns were near record highs. And again – as of the end of last year, stocks returned a measly 3% a year over the last 15 years.
The trend is clear: After booms come busts, and after busts come booms.
Sound crazy? It sounded crazy in the early 1980s, too.
So did the notion 10 years ago that we were about to face a decade of stagnation.
That's always how these things work. After booms come busts, and after busts come booms. Happens over and over.
Of course, history isn't guaranteed to repeat itself. And what drives stocks to a decade of low or high returns isn't the calendar: it's valuations. Stocks do well after they're cheap, and poorly after they're expensive. So the real question shouldn't be how long stocks have been stagnant, but whether they're cheap.
And right now we believe they are.

 

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