Warung Bebas

Monday, April 30, 2012

The Individual Investor Advantage


This weekend, as I was driving back from picking up groceries, I was listening to a financial radio talk show. I wasn’t particularly impressed with the host to start with, but then he offered some advice that was so horrible it nearly caused me to veer off the road and into a ditch. He suggested that a caller not invest in stocks, because when you buy a stock, someone smarter than you is the person who is selling it.

Instead, he suggested only investing in mutual funds. Keep in mind; he’s a financial adviser who specializes in mutual funds, so we know where his bias is.

After a few minutes more of listening to the program, I had to turn it off in favor of my daughter’s insipid Kidz Bop CDs. Anyone who followed the host’s advice might as well just flush their money down the toilet.

Here’s why.

Most mutual funds underperform the market. In 2011, 84% of stock mutual funds did not beat the broad market or their benchmark index (if a fund is focused on a particular sector like technology or a region like Europe, it will have a different index that it’s expected to beat other than the S&P 500).Last year was a particularly bad one for mutual fund managers. Normally, the results aren’t quite as dismal. Over the past 10 years, 57% of funds underperformed their benchmark.

To make the radio host’s argument even more laughable, he said those “smart” traders on the other side of the stock trades included many mutual fund managers who did this for a living.

So you should be scared of buying stock from people who are bad at their jobs? Forget that. Where do I sign up to buy from them?

The weak performance of mutual funds doesn’t mean you should avoid all mutual funds. They’re appropriate for investors who don’t like to pick their own stocks and don’t want to put much effort into their portfolio other than asset allocation. But be sure you don’t chase a hot mutual fund because it posted strong performance numbers or has a popular manager.

Instead, invest in index funds with low expense ratios. If you’re investing in index funds, you’re basically just trying to match the market averages. There’s nothing wrong with that. The market goes up over the long haul and if you’re matching the market’s performance, you’ll make money.

If you’re investing in mutual funds, consider the funds in Alexander Green’s Gone Fishin’ Portfolio. These are funds like the Vanguard Emerging Markets Index Fund (VEIEX). The fund has a very low 0.33% expense ratio and has returned an average of 13.11% per year over the past 10 years.The key to the funds in The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio are the very low fees. Many actively managed funds have significantly higher costs — usually at least 1%, and sometimes much more. That means each year 1% or more of your money is going to the mutual fund company to pay for salaries, toner and Christmas parties. That money is better off in your pocket and the lower fees will improve your returns over the years.

This doesn’t mean that there are no quality mutual funds or managers who will generate solid returns for you — but with six out of 10 fund managers underperforming the market every year, are you really good enough to pick the right one every year? I’m not. That’s why most of my mutual fund holdings are in the funds recommended in The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio — inexpensive funds that are designed to simply match the market returns.

But I don’t put all of my money in those funds. I pick stocks, too. And I’ll match wits with those fund managers any day of the week. It’s not that I’m so smart and they’re so dumb. But as an individual investor, I have opportunities that they don’t.

Individual investor advantagesFor example, a stock I like that’s currently in The Oxford Club’s Perpetual Income Portfolio is Community Bank System (NYSE: CBU). It’s a small bank located in upstate New York and Pennsylvania. It has a market cap of just over $1 billion and trades an average of 244,000 shares a day.

I like it because it never took a dime of TARP money, pays a 3.6% dividend yield (4.7% based on our entry price in September) and has raised the dividend every year for 19 years.With just 244,000 shares traded per day, a large mutual fund would have difficulty buying large blocks of stock without moving the share price significantly. As an individual investor, you would have no problem picking up a few thousand shares on any given day.

Also, as an individual investor, you don’t have to worry about marketing. You’re not trying to impress anyone with which stocks you own or trying hard to beat a benchmark. However, a mutual fund, particularly one that isn’t outperforming, better have some of the hottest stocks in its portfolio at the end of the quarter, when its portfolio is revealed, otherwise, as Ricky Ricardo used to say, they’ll have some “’splainin’ to do.”Additionally, they’ll get rid of their dogs. The fund companies don’t want investors pulling their money (which reduces fees collected) because investors think the fund managers are asleep on the job. But buying hot stocks and dumping beaten up ones is usually the wrong thing to do.

If the fund manager has done his homework and likes a stock because of its prospects and/or value, selling it because it sold off and is cheap isn’t going to help investors in the long run. He should be buying. And similarly, if a stock is hot and is a momentum trade, buying it after it is popular is also misguided, as it may be difficult to sell so many shares from a big fund when the music stops.

Individual investors have more flexibility than the big guys. You don’t have to publish quarterly reports that will be scrutinized and you can get in and out of stocks whenever you want, without fear of moving the price. You can also switch your strategy at any given time.

If you decide small caps look more attractive than large caps, you can move some of your assets between the two groups, whereas a large cap fund manager is stuck in large caps, no matter how the group is performing.

Even if you’re an investor who doesn’t want to actively manage your money, don’t be lazy and hand it over to a mutual fund manager who will likely not do as good a job as you or a passive index fund will. Pick some great stocks that you expect to hold for the long term, or buy the funds mentioned in The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio. You’ll save a ton of money in fees and likely do a better job than the fund managers do. It would be hard to do worse.

Marc Lichtenfeld is the Senior Analyst at InvestmentU.com

http://www.investmentu.com/investment-experts/marc-lichtenfeld.html

Warrant poser, cash settlement calculation unfair say some


Monday April 30, 2012

By TEE LIN SAY 

linsay@thestar.com.my


PETALING JAYA: The calculation of cash settlement for call warrants has come under the spotlight as some investors argue that the current method is unfair.
They argue that the calculation of cash settlement for call warrants should not be determined based on the average closing price of the last five days, but instead be based on the volume weighted average price of the last five days.
Currently under Bursa Malaysia's listing requirements, issuers of structured warrants are able to determine for themselves the calculation of cash settlement based on three options:
(i) The volume weighted average price; or
(ii) The average closing price; or
(iii) The closing price of the underlying share or exchange-traded fund on the market day immediately before the exercise or expiry date.
However, most issuers presently use the average closing price as the method to determine cash settlement. Some dealers feel that this may be unfair because if the closing price of the mother share gets depressed on the last five days, then the cash settlement figure drops. “This has happened in a few instances, so it raises the question of whether a more dynamic price determination ought to be considered,” said one dealer.
He cited examples of Malaysia Building Society Bhd's (MBSB) call warrants which expired on April 18 and the DRB-Hicom-CH which expired on April 26.
“For the last five days where the price of the mother share was being used to determine the cash settlement, the price of MBSB's mother share was depressed at the close of four out of the five days,” said the dealer.
MBSB-CA expired at 5pm on April 18. Looking at the intraday charts of MBSB on April 11, 12, 13, 16, and 17, the share prices closed at the low of its day for April 11, 12, 16 and 17. The share prices started dropping towards 4.30pm.
For example on April 17, MBSB opened at RM2.19 and reached an intraday high of RM2.25. By 4.30pm, however, the share price had started dropping and it eventually closed (at 5pm) at RM2.17.
Basically, the higher the mother share, the higher the cash settlement for the warrant holder.
The exercise ratio was 3 MBSB-CA for every one MBSB mother share at an exercise price of RM1.48.
MBSB's closing price of RM2.18 was the average of the closing prices for the shares on each of the five market days immediately before the expiry date.
In the case of DRB-Hicom-CH, it expired on April 26. On the last five days of its closing before expiry, which were April 20, 23, 24, 25 and 26, its share price also dipped lower from the RM2.60-RM2.68 range it was trading in the last three weeks. For those five settlement days, the stock closed at an average price of RM2.45.
While it only closed at its intra-day low on April 23, it did close near to its day's low for the other four days.
A Bursa official said that Bursa's current rules were in line with those of other exchanges such as Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX).
“However, in the discharge of our obligation to ensure a fair and orderly market, Bursa Malaysia has and will continue to review the effectiveness of its rules to ensure they meet their intended objectives,” said the Bursa official.
He added that SGX and HKEX allowed for options (ii) and (iii) .

Sunday, April 29, 2012

How Checklists Can Help Investors



April 12 2012 

It is easy to drown in the flood of information available in the financial markets. There's always one more report to read, one more press release to peruse or one more chart to interpret. In such an environment, it's easy to get pulled off course; information intended to help you, can actually make it difficult to maintain a consistent investment process.

Unfortunately, the market rewards disciplined investing and often quickly punishes emotional, distracted or disorganized approaches. What's more, it's easy to forget discipline when things are going especially well or especially bad. And then there's just human nature – humans are fallible creatures and even the best find it difficult to remember or replicate what worked three or four years ago.

SEE: Stock-Picking Strategies 

Accordingly, investors should seek out ways to stay disciplined and methodical when it comes to researching new ideas, maintaining an existing portfolio and exiting positions. One of the best ways to achieve this is the use of checklists. Just as airline and military pilots have used checklists for decades to eliminate avoidable accidents and produce better results, so too can investors use checklists to develop better and more consistent investment behaviors
The Advantages of ChecklistsWords like "disciplined" and "methodical" are going to show up a few times in this article, and for good reason. A methodical and disciplined approach means that investors are considering the full range of the possibilities and risks, practicing careful due diligence and performing the detailed research that often accompanies long-term investment success. To that end, step-by-step checklists help foster, support and reinforce that step-by-step approach.

Checklists also help investors avoid lazy mistakes or short-cuts. Many investors, particularly value investors, claim that there is a wealth of information in the details and footnotes of filings like 10-Ks. That's true, but the fact remains that investors often forget to go through every step and read all of that material. They certainly may mean well, and they may even think they have done it, but it's all too easy to forget in a hectic and busy time. In other words, a checklist ensures than an investor always does what he or she intends to do. 

Checklists are also advantageous in that they leave a decision-making trail that can be modified and corrected with time. If an investment didn't work out, the investor can often see what went wrong and that may point to a necessary change in the process. Perhaps that investor ignored large insider sales or perhaps the investor failed to investigate what new products were coming out from rivals. Whatever the case may be, it can be a new item to add to the list. Just as airlines are constantly updating pilot checklists on the basis of experience (good and bad), so too should investors.
On the flip side, investors may also learn that they are being too strict or demanding; investors who see too many stocks succeed outside of their standards may need to revisit and revise those standards. If an investor can identify what works in the market, they can compare the qualities and characteristics of those stocks to the standards demanded by their checklists and see if they match appropriately.

Emotions are often the enemy of successful investors, and checklists can help sap the emotion from investment decisions. If nothing else, the methodical process of going through a checklist introduces a bit of tedium to offset those emotions and can allow a cooler head to prevail. The routine and ritual of going through a checklist can help preserve gains or avoid chasing bad ideas by not allowing investors to get carried away with momentum or hot stories.

The Disadvantages of ChecklistsWhile checklists are useful tools and this is a pro-checklist article, fairness demands that some of the downsides and disadvantages of checklists be presented as well.

For starters, checklists can feed a "paralysis by analysis" - the idea that there's always just one more piece of information to find before an investment decision can be made. This is especially true in cases where checklists have become too long or too thorough over time.
Checklists may also provide a false sense of security. Checklists are a consummate example of "garbage in, garbage out" and if investors build checklists on the basis of trivial or incorrect views of the market, the resulting investment performance will be lacking.

Lastly, checklists can be emotionally painful. It can ding the ego or pride to realize that you cannot do it all and need to rely on refreshers. Likewise, some investors love the rush that comes with investing on whim and emotion, and checklists can feel like straightjackets. Moreover, checklists eliminate some of the excuses that investors may like to use to explain losses – a consistent and methodical approach doesn't really allow for investors blaming "shorts," hedge funds or other fictional evil-doers for their losses.

Steps to Build a More Useful ChecklistAs there are so many different valid investment strategies out there, it is beyond the scope of a single article to offer the range of appropriate checklist permutations. Instead, there are some more general philosophies and approaches that can help investors create usable checklists for their own particular approach.

Above all, it is important to identify the key steps in the process and the key opportunities for a serious error. A fundamentals-based value investor, for instance, has to consider those financial footnotes, but likely has little reason to worry about chart patterns. Relying on technical analysis, though, may have to include a number of confirming or contradictory signals before coming to a final decision on a stock, while not worrying much (if at all) about the details of the company's off-balance sheet financing.

Checklists must also be brief. These are reminders and guides, not how-to manuals. Anything beyond a single page is likely to be too unwieldy to be practical, and investors are well-advised to create separate lists for separate tasks (like buying, evaluating current holdings and selling).

Last and not least, checklists need to be consistently evaluated and revised. When something goes wrong, identify the cause and evaluate the checklist to see if it needs revision. When something goes right, the same rules apply. Not all mistakes are preventable, but it is important to identify those that are and make sure they do not reoccur.

The Bottom LineChecklists are tools, not panaceas. If an investor can identify the aspects of an investment that indicate a possibility to outperform the market, it behooves them to make sure that they carefully evaluate every potential investment for those aspects and stay away from investments that do not have them. There is nothing sexy about checklists and most investors will find them to be tedious at first. As time goes on, though, and potential mistakes are avoided in lieu of real winners, diligent checklist-users are likely to find that this is a relatively simple and cheap means of boosting returns. 


Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/12/Investors-Should-Check-Out-Checklists.asp?partner=sfgate#ixzz1tPhOR0zP

4 Steps To Creating A Better Investment Strategy


August 16 2010 


It is no secret that behind every successful investment manager there is a written, measurable and repeatable investment strategy. However, many investors jump from one trade to another, putting little effort into creating and measuring their overall strategies.

Read on to learn four questions that, when answered, will help you create a better investment strategy. The following questions will help you create an investment strategy that is written, measurable and backed by your own strong beliefs. This will lead to more consistent investment performance and help you mitigate emotional investment decisions. Most importantly, it will help you avoid a scattered portfolio of individual investments that, when looked at as a whole, have no overall theme or objective.

  • Can you write down your investment strategy as a process?To quote the late Dr. W. Edwards Deming, a world famous author and management quality consultant, "If you can't describe what you are doing as a process, you don't know what you are doing." Like anything that requires a disciplined process, it is important to write down your investment strategy. Doing this will help you articulate it. Once your strategy is written, you should look over it to make sure that it matches your long-term investment objectives. Writing down your strategy gives you something to revert back to in times of chaos, which will help you avoid making emotional investment decisions. It also gives you something to review and change if you notice flaws, or your investment objectives change. If you are a professional investor, having a written strategy will help clients better understand your investment process. This can increase trust, mitigate client inquiries and increase client retention.
  • Does your investment strategy contain a belief about why investments become over or undervalued? If so, how do you exploit that?This question could relate to whether or not you believe that investment markets are efficient. Ask yourself, "What makes me smarter than the market? What is my competitive advantage?" You may have special industry knowledge or subscribe to special research that few other investors have. Or, you may have beliefs about exploiting certain market anomalies, like buying stocks with low price-to-book ratios. Once you have decided what your competitive advantage is, you must decide how you can profitably execute a long-term trading plan to exploit it.
    Your trading plan should include rules for both buying and selling investments. Also, keep in mind that your competitive advantage can eventually lose its profitability simply by other investors implementing the same strategy. On the other hand, you may believe that investment markets are completely efficient, meaning that no investor has a consistent competitive advantage. In this case, it is best to focus your strategy on minimizing taxes and transaction costs by investing in passive indexes. (To read more on market efficiency and market anomalies, see What Is Market Efficiency?, and Making Sense Of Market Anomalies.)
  • Will your investment strategy perform well in every market environment? If not, when will it perform the worst?There is an old saying on Wall Street, "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Good investment managers know where their investment performance comes from, and can explain their strategy's strengths and weaknesses. As market trends and economic themes change, many great investment strategies will have periods of great performance followed by periods of lagging performance. Having a good understanding of your strategy's weaknesses is crucial to maintaining your confidence and investing with conviction, even if your strategy is temporarily out of vogue. It can also help you find strategies that may complement your own. A popular example of this would be mixing both value and growth investing strategies.
  • Do you have a system in place for measuring the effectiveness of your investment strategy?It is difficult to improve or fully understand something that you do not measure. For this reason, you should have benchmark to measure the effectiveness of your investment strategy. Your benchmark should match your investment objective, which in turn, should match your investment strategy.

    Two common types of investment benchmarks are relative and absolute benchmarks. An example of a relative benchmark would be a passive market index, like the S&P 500 Index or the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. An example of an absolute benchmark would be a target return, such as 6% annually. Although it can be a time consuming process, it is important to consider the amount of risk you are taking relative to your investment benchmark. You can do this by recording the volatility of your portfolio's returns, and comparing it to the volatility of your benchmark's returns over of periods of time. More sophisticated measures of returns that adjust for risk are the Treynor Ratio and the Sharpe Ratio. (For more on risk adjusted returns please read, Understanding Volatility Measurements and Measure Your Portfolio's Performance.)

ConclusionSun Tzu, an ancient Chinese military general and strategist, once said, "Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat". Sun Tzu knew that having a well thought out strategy before you go into battle is crucial to winning. Good money managers have a clear understanding of why investments are over and undervalued, and know what drives their investment performance. If you are going to battle against them everyday in investment markets, shouldn't you? Great trades may win battles, but a well-thought-out investment strategy wins wars.


Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/10/creating-a-better-investment-strategy.asp?partner=sfgate#ixzz1tPbBRQ5O

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Credit ratings cut on cards for Malaysia


Credit ratings cut on cards for Malaysia
Malaysia Sun
Saturday 28th April, 2012  
Malaysia faces a credit ratings cut over concerns about its high national debt.
Malaysia faces a credit ratings cut over concerns about its high national debt.

Standard Poor's and Moody's have said there is a possibility that the credit rating could be downgraded if the debt is not lowered.

While Malaysia's central bank has said the national debt is manageable given Malaysia's improved economic credentials, there have been suggestions the debt has been created by current government politicians who have spent large amounts of government money to gain support ahead of the nearing general election.

The Malaysian national debt currently stands at 54 per cent of its gross domestic product.

Bersih: Punca Berlaku Kemalangan

Friday, April 27, 2012

SILVER BIRD GROUP BERHAD

THE PRELIMINARY PROPOSED CORPORATE AND DEBT RESTRUCTURING SCHEME (“PCDRS”) OF SBGB AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES (COLLECTIVELY KNOWN AS THE SBGB GROUP”))


                                                               Notes  RM’000
Shareholders’ funds as at 31 October 2011        213,423
Property, Plant & Equipment impairment       1    (98,005)
Goodwill impairment                                     2    (36,730)
Receivables impairment                                3  (110,754)
Cash reduction                                             4      (6,442)
Inventory reduction                                      5      (5,232)
Payables adjustments                                   6    (25,302)
Increased borrowings                                   7    (14,212)
Others                                                         8         (407)
                                                                     ------------
                                                                       (297,084)
                                                                      ________
Shareholders’ funds as at 29 February 2012      (83,661)
                                                                       =======


http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmsweb.nsf/all/FCE47820DA0472AF482579ED004296E5/$File/Silver%20Brid%20Financial%20Position%20reconciliation.pdf

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmsweb.nsf/LsvAllByID/FCE47820DA0472AF482579ED004296E5?OpenDocument

Notes

1. Impairment to fair value, after taking into consideration additional depreciation since 31 October 2011, write down of assets that should have been expensed to profit & loss as opposed to being capitalized, movements in acquisitions and disposals, write-offs of assets that cannot be physically identified, write backs of assets that were not previously taken up, and possibly adjustments to assets that may have been suspected to be capitalized above fair market value arising partly from the preliminary forensic investigation.

 2. In view of the net liabilities position of the Group, goodwill is impaired in totality. 

 3. Adjustments have been made for movements in the ordinary course of business between 31 October 2011 and 29 February 2012, and which may relate to the losses incurred during the said period, provisions for doubtful debts and suspected financial irregularities arising from the preliminary findings of the forensic investigation.

4. Adjustments have been made for movements in the ordinary course of business between 31 October 2011 and 29 February 2012, and which may relate to the losses incurred during the said period, and after reconciling for transactions relating to suspected financial irregularities arising from the preliminary findings of the forensic investigation.

5. Adjustments have been made for movements in the ordinary course of business between 31 October 2011 and 29 February 2012, and which may relate to the losses incurred during the said period, and for obsolete inventories and inventories that cannot be physically identified. 

 6. Adjustments have been made for movements in the ordinary course of business between 31 October 2011 and 29 February 2012, and which may relate to the losses incurred during the said period, and for provisions relating to suspected financial irregularities arising from the preliminary findings of the forensic investigation.

7. Increased borrowings can be related to additional net borrowings of the Group between 31 October 2011 and 29 February 2012. Certain facilities, such as bonds, were paid off, whilst additional borrowings were drawn down, in particular bankers acceptances, during the period.

8. Others, relate to the write-off of investment in KPF Quality Foods Sdn Bhd, and increased deferred taxation provisions. The basis of arriving at the 29 February 2012 position is set out in the notes to the financial position.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Nestle Malaysia: The Highest Price per Share Stock in Bursa Malaysia today. Well done.


Friday April 27, 2012

Nestle Malaysia plans major capex investment

By SHARIDAN M. ALI
sharidan@thestar.com.my

Managing director Peter R. Vogt said the company planned quite a sizeable investment to expand its manufacturing facility in Shah Alam.
“At the moment our engineering department is working on which production lines should be added and what is the exact size of investment needed,” he told reporters after the company's AGM yesterday.
Last year, Nestle Malaysia bought a piece of land adjacent to the company's plant in Shah Alam from British American Tobacco (M) Bhd (BAT) for RM36mil cash.
As for this year's capex, Vogt said it would spend about RM180mil, where a large portion of it would be for the upgrading of equipment.
“We are running 80% to 90% of capacity utilisation in many areas of our production thus we need to upgrade a lot of basic equipment,” he said.
Asked if Nestle was planning to increase the prices of its products, Vogt said the company had no plan to do so for the time being but was closely monitoring the price movements of commodities.
“We are buying forward or hedging certain commodities to minimise the impact of cost spike. We also are continuing with our Nestle Continuous Excellence initiatives, where every year we find new ways to save on cost.
“The objective of all these is to maintain the current price as long as we can,” he said.
Some of Nestle Malaysia's main raw materials used in its products are coffee, cocoa powder and milk solids.
On new product launches, Vogt said Nestle had strategised to have fewer but good quality product launches that would have long and strong marketability.
“The best example is our newest product Nescafe Dolce Gusto Espressomachine where we are planning to expand on its variety of beverages.
“Another good example is Milo, which is still strong in the market even after 40 to 50 years,” he said.
Asked whether Nestle Malaysia would market Pfizer's baby food products soon following the recent announcement that Nestle SA was acquiring Pfizer's infant nutrition division, Vogt said the transaction would need necessary regulatory approvals that would take six to 12 months.
“It's too early to say now how we are going to integrate this new development into Nestle Malaysia,” he said.
Despite the many uncertainties that could dampen global economic growth and further drive volatility in commodity costs, Nestle Malaysia on Wednesday announced a good set of financial results.
Its net profit for its first quarter ended March 31 was up 7.5% to RM158.1mil from the same quarter last year.
Turnover for the quarter stood at RM1.16bil, which reflected an 8.5% increase from a year ago.
The growth was driven by both domestic and export sales.
Vogt noted that Nestle Malaysia, which celebrated its 100th anniversary in Malaysia this year, had achieved the highest level rating in the 2011 Creating Shared Value (CSV) report, which accompanied the group's corporate and financial reports.
“The report was externally verified by Bureau Veritas Certification for an A+rating in accordance with Global Reporting Initiative 3.0 standards for the food Processing sector,” he said.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

How to do a stock research & analysis.


Opto Circuits India Ltd - Stock Research & Analysis
(15 Dec 2008)

Synopsis

Opto Circuits is a small company in Medical Electronics industry with focus in the niche areas of invasive (coronary stents) and non-invasive (sensors, patient monitors) segments. Prior to '2002 Opto's Revenues were less than Rs. 50 Cr. Today Revenues stand at Rs.468 Cr, with exports accounting for more than 95% of Revenues. Opto Circuits is based in Bangalore India and operates out of offices established in USA, Europe, South-East Asia, Latin America and the Middle East and boasts of a strong international distribution network present in over 70 countries.

The Numbers speak for themselves. Net profit margins are healthy (over 28%), great return on equity (~ 40%, unmatched in the Medical Electronics industry), and solid return on invested capital ratios (over 45%). Financial health has been steadily improving over the years with comfortable financial leverage (1.34) and Debt to equity (0.31), with solid Current & Quick ratios. However, Opto Circuits still has a long way to go before it can show loads of excess cash on its books, due to its aggressive business expansion. Free Cash Flow as a percentage of sales is ~6 percent. It has consistently increased Dividends per share and has a unique track record of rewarding shareholders with bonus shares every year, for the 7th straight year! Opto Circuits seems to enjoy an above-average Economic Moat and fares very well when compared to its peers in this Peer Comparison snapshot.

Though there are Significant Risks going forward, Opto Circuits has lots of positives going for it. Over the last 7 years since FY2002, Opto Circuits Revenues have clocked a long term sales growth of over 45% while long term EPS growth has galloped at a handsome 60% plus. It has been working steadily grow its business through pursuing organic growth through investments in manufacturing capacities and penetrating into newer markets, supplemented by inorganic growth through judicious acquisitions. To its credit Opto circuits has managed acquisitions so far quite well, drawing synergies by leveraging distribution networks and lower-cost manufacturing bases. There is some evidence of Sustainable Growth over the medium term. We posed a few questions to Opto Circuits Management to be able to understand and assess its longer-term prospects and growth sustainability, better.

Opto's track record so far evidences early signs of being served by a Competent Management Team. The stock is promising and there's nothing wrong with investing in a young growth company like Opto Circuits, as long as you know what you are getting into. It has a long way to go before it qualifies to be among the Core holdings in anyone's Portfolio. It’s a long shot, though one that might just pay you back many times over. However, this is only half the story because even the best companies are poor investments if purchased at too high a price. We cover Opto Circuits' stock valuation in the other half story. 

Read more here:

Midsize Stocks - A Good Choice for Anyone's Nest Egg

It isn’t easy to find a stock that has the magic — an enticing financial elixir that combines stability with the promise of a decent rate of growth.

  • Large-company stocks are relatively stable but move too slowly for many investors. 
  • Small-company stocks’ value can rise quickly but could be seen as a gamble at a time in which investors aren’t exactly excited by the notion of taking on added risk. 
Say the experts: Find the middle. “The $2 billion to $7 billion market-cap range is really a sweet spot in the market,” says Don Easley, portfolio manager of the T. Rowe Price Diversified Mid-Cap Growth Fund.

“There are a lot of interesting companies in that area and there’s certainly a place for mid-caps in anyone’s portfolio.”

Stocks at these midsized companies aren’t called the“sweet spot”without reason. Indeed, the class of stocks that not too many years ago were classless — lumped in with large-cap stocks — has outperformed their larger and smaller peers. 

BetterInvesting uses annual revenue to determine a company’s category.

  • For instance, midsized companies have annual revenues between $500 million and $5 billion
  • Small companies have revenue below $500 million and 
  • large-company revenue weighs in at more than $5 billion.

The companies screened should satisfy the following conditions:

1.  Past performances

  • trailing-12-month revenues of between $500 million and $5 billion;
  • five-year sales and earnings growth of at least 12 percent.
2.  Projected future performances
  • forecasted five-year annual earnings and sales growth of 12 percent; and 
  • a projected annual total return for the next three to five years of at least 12 percent. 

Also, look for Financial Strength and Earnings Predictability. 

As with any stock screen,this is just a starting point for research; no investment recommendations are intended.

Also, make sure any company of interest looks suitable on a Stock Selection Guide using your own judgments.

The Genetics of Investing


Are you one of the better investors?  The answer might lie in your genes.
Investors frequently fall prey to a myriad of asset-damaging biases, such as engaging in excess trading, being inadequately diversified or thinking that recent success proves you’re a genius unconstrained by the normal rules of sound financial management.
A recent academic paper titled “Why Do Individuals Exhibit Investment Biases?” by finance professors Henrik Cronqvist and Stephan Siegel argues that around 50% of the variation of biases among people comes from their genes.  What this means is that if you try to explain why some people make certain kinds of financial mistakes, about half of your explanation should point to genetics and the other half to environmental differences.
A key implication of the authors’ analysis is that you can’t trust your intuition with regard to investments because your genes probably push you to make irrational choices.  When deciding how to invest, consequently, you should be open to going against what feels right in favor of following sound investment advice such as buy and hold, diversify and don’t mistake luck for financial acumen.
The really interesting implications of this genetic analysis, however, won’t kick in until a lot more people get their genes sequenced.  The cost of digitally transcribing someone’s DNA is exponentially dropping.  It’s reasonable to predict that within 10 years, most everyone in rich countries will for health reasons have their DNA analyzed; after all, if your genes make you susceptible to a certain kind of cancer, you really want to know this so that you can get yourself tested.  But once you know your DNA and understand the genes that cause specific biases, you could learn exactly what kind of investment problems your genes predispose you to.
Parents could use information gleaned from their children’s DNA to figure out what kind of financial lessons to give their offspring, and to in part determine which of their children should have power of attorney over them if they become medically incapable of making financial decisions.
 

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