Warung Bebas

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Lessons from the FACEBOOK IPO. Be Wary of IPOs. It's Probably Overpriced.

Do you think you can make lots of money by getting in on the ground floor of the initial public offering (IPO) of a company just coming to market?

My advice is:
  • that you should not buy IPOs at their initial offering price and 
  • that you should never buy an IPO just after it begins trading at prices that are generally higher than the IPO price.  
Historically IPOs have been a bad deal.  In measuring all IPOs five years after their initial issuance, researchers have found that IPOs underperform the total stock market by about four percentage points per year.  
  • The poor performance starts about six months after the issue is sold.  
  • Six months is generally set as the "lock up" period, where insiders are prohibited from selling stock to the public.  
  • Once that constraint is lifted, the price of the stock often tanks.
The investment results are even poorer for individual investors.  You will never be allowed to buy the really good IPOs at the initial offering price.  The hot IPOs are snapped up by the big institutional investors or the very best wealthy clients of the underwriting firm. 


If your broker calls to say that IPO shares will be available for you, you can bet that the new issue is a dog. 
  • Only if the brokerage firm is unable to sell the shares to the big institutions and the best individual clients will you be offered a chance to buy at the initial offering price.  
  • Hence, it will systematically turn out that you will be buying only the poorest of the new issues.  
  • There is no strategy I am aware of likely to lose you more money, except perhaps the horse races or the gaming tables of Las Vegas.



A Random Walk Down Wall Street
by Burton G. Malkiel


Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Five key questions in considering investment opportunities:


1.  Is this a good business run by smart people?

This may include items such as quality of earnings, product lines, market sizes, management teams, and the sustainability of competitive positioning within the industry.

2.  What is this company worth?

Value investors perform fair value assessments that allow them to establish a range of prices that would determine the fair value of the company, based on measures such as normalized free cash flow, break-up , takeout, and/or asset values.  Exit valuation assessment provides a rational "fair value" target price, and indicates the upside opportunity from the current stock price.

3.  How attractive is the price for this company, and what should I pay for it?

Price assessment allows the individual to understand fully the price at which the stock market is currently valuing the company.  In this analysis, the investor takes several factors into account by essentially answering the question.  Why is the company afforded its current low valuation?  For example, a company with an attractive valuation at first glance may not prove to be so appealing after a proper assessment of its accounting strategy or its competitive position relative to its peers.

4.  How realistic is the most effective catalyst?

Catalyst identification and effectiveness bridges the gap between the current asking price and what value investors think the company is worth based on their exit valution assessment.  The key here lies in making sure that the catalyst identified to "unlock" value in the company is very likely to occur.  Potential effective catalysts may include the breakup of the company, a divestiture, new management, or an ongoing internal catalyst, such as a company's culture.

5.  What is my margin of safety at my purchase price?

Buying shares with a margin of safety is essentially owning shares cheap enough that the price paid is heavily supported by the underlying economics of the business, asset values, and cash on the balance sheet.  If a company's stock trades below this "margin of safety" price level for a length of time, it would be reasonable to believe that the company is more likely to be sold to a strategic or financial buyer, broken up, or liquidated to realize its true intrinsic value - thus making such shares safer to own.




Monday, June 25, 2012

Nervous UK investors make a dash for cash

Thousands of nervous investors are shunning shares as the financial crisis drags on.

Family sheltering their savings
Investors opting for the safety of cash amid the economic debt crisis Photo: Howard McWilliam


British investors are making a dash for cash as the eurozone turmoil shows no sign of abating. Stockbrokers, fund providers and investment managers all say that investors with Sipps (self-invested personal pensions) and Isas are keeping their powder dry by investing in cash rather than stocks and shares.
At the end of May, one leading fund broker, Bestinvest, said 75pc of the money invested by its clients went straight into cash as the uncertainty around Spanish banks and a Greek default put investors off.
Last month Fidelity's Fundsnetwork said 36pc of all investments went into cash funds, compared with an average of just 3pc, while Skandia said twice as much money was invested in cash in May as in April.
Barclays' investment management arm has also reported increased demand from investors to move money into cash. Oliver Gregson, an investment manager at the bank, said it had been a year of two halves.
"Until March we saw investors being significantly 'risk on', with large flows into equities and other assets. Japan and the US were particularly popular," he said.
"However, in the past three months money has been coming out of markets, and deposits into cash are up."
Mr Gregson added that cash was the only asset class that could fulfil the remit set to him by many clients at the moment: not to lose capital.
Such is the market uncertainty that Barclays is allocating a substantial 45pc of low-risk investors' portfolios to cash. Move up the risk appetite scale and the proportion is reduced to 12pc for those who want moderate risk and 7pc for those who have high tolerance.
Barclays uses a mixture of floating-rate notes, short-term bonds and instant-access accounts for its clients' cash allocation – with at least half of the money in instant-access accounts for liquidity purposes.
Mark Dampier of Hargreaves Lansdown, the advisory firm, said cash was the more attractive asset for investors right now.
"While many cash accounts fail to beat the rate of inflation, at least your capital is protected if you keep it in cash," he said. "It may be an unpopular view among advisers, but the markets can lose you money."
Mr Dampier added that although fixed-rate accounts might offer a greater return on your money than the "cash park" facilities found on fund supermarket platforms, the most important thing about today's market conditions was keeping your assets liquid.
Cash parks allow investors to "park" their cash before investing it in an Isa, protecting its tax-free status and buying the individual more time to choose which fund to invest in. You can then return to the investment platform when you consider there is a worthy investment opportunity and transfer your money into a stock or fund without losing its tax-efficient status.
The cash park on the Hargreaves Lansdown platform pays 0.25pc for deposits of more than £50,000, 0.1pc for less. Fidelity Fundsnetwork's cash park facility pays Bank Rate minus 0.2 percentage points – currently 0.3pc. Bestinvest's facility pays 0.25pc on deposits of more than £20,000, but nothing for smaller sums.
Mr Dampier said: "The market moves so much at the moment that there may be a buying opportunity today that has passed in a week. If your cash is locked away in a 30-day notice account, that is no good," he said.
"Yes, you may not get an inflation-beating return in the cash park, but your capital is protected and your portfolio liquid."
While savers' fears about investing in the market are well founded, Adrian Lowcock of Bestinvest urged them to steel their nerve if they could.
"There is no doubt that the uncertainty in Europe, particularly around the Greek elections, has put investors off. It is important that, if you do put cash aside in an Isa or Sipp while waiting to invest, you actually take action and invest it. Don't forget about it," he said.
"It is human nature not to act in times of crisis. Ultimately when investing they buy high and sell low, when in fact they should be looking for the longer term and buying on weakness, not waiting for a rebound."
The euro crisis has hit this year's Isa investors hard and their caution is understandable. Last week The Daily Telegraph's Your Money section disclosed that many savers will have seen as much as 25pc wiped off the value of their fund in just three months as global economic fears intensified.
Several of the biggest and most popular funds have been hardest hit. Aberdeen Emerging Markets, for example, was one of the best-selling Isas in the run-up to the end of the tax year. But anyone who invested £10,000 in mid-March would now be sitting on a fund worth £9,156, according to Morningstar.
An investor who bought the popular JP Morgan Natural Resources fund would have seen a £10,000 investment fall by almost £2,500 to just £7,683 – which means that the fund needs to climb by more than 30pc from here just for savers to break even.
And there is little sign of relief on the horizon despite the Greek election result, which did not rule out the threat of the country exiting the euro.
Fund managers are in a cautious mood, too. A survey of 260 asset managers across the globe by Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that cash positions rose to 5.3pc in June, levels similar to those seen at the height of the financial crisis in January 2009 and the highest since March 2003 and December 2008.

Falling sipp rates

The rates paid on cash by Sipp providers have come in for criticism in the past – last year several financial advisers branded them as "unacceptable".
Investors who choose to keep Sipp allowances in cash frequently earn Bank Rate (0.5pc) or less; the average rate is just 0.75pc, according to Investec Bank.
With inflation still riding high at 2.8pc, this gives negative real returns for hundreds of thousands of pension investors.
Advisers said that on average investors held almost 10pc of their Sipp in cash. Investors are allowed to deposit £50,000 or 100pc of their salary a year into a pension, whichever is the lower. This means that potentially £5,000 a year of pension savings is guaranteed to be eroded by inflation.
The average amount of cash held in a Sipp is £39,000, Investec said, with some investors having as much as £50,000 in cash – built up over years of pension contributions.
Lionel Ross of Investec said: "The stagnant Bank Rate is having a knock-on effect on the rates paid on the cash element of Sipps. Advisers are now waking up to the need to challenge their current cash account provider to ensure that their clients are getting the highest possible returns on their deposits, which should in turn enhance overall pension fund performance.
"Given ongoing market volatility, investors, particularly those nearing retirement, are increasing their cash allocation. However, it is essential that they check that this money is held in an account paying a competitive rate of interest."
Around £90bn is held in Sipp accounts nationwide.
Not all Sipp cash rates are bad, however. Investec's own offering pays 2.25pc for sums of £25,000 or more. James Hay Partnership pays between 1.4pc and 2.9pc, and Hargreaves Lansdown said it offered fixed deals paying up to 2.5pc for Sipp holders who wanted to hold cash for three months or more.
But Darius McDermott of Chelsea Financial Services warned investors to avoid cash funds. "There are funds that invest in cash or cash equivalents but other than providing more of a 'safe haven' for your money, as they invest across more than one financial institution, they offer little incentive at the moment. Most are returning only in the region of the Bank Rate so you'd be better off in a bog-standard savings account," he said.
Moneyfacts, the financial information service, said a higher-rate taxpayer would need to find an account paying at least 4.7pc to negate the impact of tax and inflation. However, there are few accounts available that will pay this much, meaning that once people have exhausted their Isa allowance they will struggle.
Basic-rate taxpayers have more luck, with 210 accounts that overcome both the effect of inflation and the taxman's cut by paying 3.7pc or more.
Birmingham Midshires has a three-year fixed-rate bond that pays 4pc and can be opened with a deposit of just £1. Secure Trust Bank's five-year fixed-rate cash bond requires a larger deposit of £1,000 but pays an impressive 4.45pc.
The best one-year bond on the market is from Cahoot and pays 3.6pc. For instant access go to santander.co.uk – the bank's online saver account pays a market-leading 3.2pc and can be opened with £1.

The pros and high frequency traders rule the world. Is the Buy & Hold Stock Strategy Officially Dead?


If you hold onto an investment for longer than five days, consider yourself the new millennium’s version of Benjamin Graham.
Benjamin Grahamn, author of 'Intelligent Investor'
Source: Reed Business Information, Inc.
Benjamin Graham, the economist often considered the father of value investing.

The average holding period for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), the ETF which tracks the benchmark for U.S. stocks, is less than five days, according to shocking statistics in analyst Alan Newman’s latest Crosscurrents newsletter.
“Given recent average volume, the SPY trades its entire capitalization and then some each and every week,” wrote the always-provocative analyst. “Does anyone really wish to argue where valuation might enter the picture in this scenario? Value does not matter in the slightest.”
Analysts blame the hot potato market on the disappearance of the individual investor and the entry of the high-frequency trader. After three bear markets in the last decade, individual investors – especially baby boomers careening toward retirement – don’t have the risk tolerance to be burned once again.
“True liquidity has not come back and the pros and high frequency traders rule the world,” said Brian Stutland of Stutland Volatility Group. “Plus, if the average person ever comes back, then they won't have time to play all day long back and forth in the market. So, maybe buy and hold really is dead.”
Newman notes in his newsletter that the average holding period for all stocks was almost four years from 1926 through 1999. After a tech mania, a housing bubble, and the explosion in electronic trading, the average holding period sits at just 3.2 months today.
The decline in mutual funds and rise of short-term oriented hedge funds are also partly to blame for this trend, investors said.
“From the hedge fund perspective, we are judged on monthly performance, and three months is a lifetime,” said Brian Kelly of hedge fund Shelter Harbor Capital. “Ask any hedge fund or mutual fund manager for how long do they believe they can underperform the market and I guarantee they will tell you, ‘One quarter.’”
In one of the most extreme examples of our day-trading, computer-driven investment culture, Newman unveils this gem: “In the three months from the beginning of March to the end of May, transactions in Apple comprised one of every $16 traded in the U.S. market, very likely the most concentrated focus on one stock in stock market history.”
How many of the human beings or machines behind those trades looked at Apple’s price-earnings ratio?
“I speak with retail investors every day and I can tell you that more than ever, they believe that the stock market is a casino for the large and well-connected investors,” said Mitch Goldberg, ClientFirst Strategy in Woodbury, NY. “Of course, different investment styles go in and out of favor every so often, so to be a long term investor, you’d need a ton of patience and very thick skin. Eventually, the Graham and Buffett way will be back in favor and I think that is what will encourage the retail investor to step back into the market.”

Sunday, June 24, 2012

How exactly do we know the value of the asset? Trust Your Instincts (Common Sense).

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."

Leave it to Warren Buffett to sum up the dilemma in a single pithy dichotomy. 


The world's greatest investor reminds us that the value of an asset -- whether a car, a house, or a stock -- does not necessarily have any relation to the price we pay to own it.   


Buffett's observation still leaves us with one crucial question: How exactly do we know the value of the asset?

  • Benjamin Graham's classic non-answer stated that an asset is worth at least its book value, so you're safe if you pay less than that. 
  • There's also a logically impeccable but not very helpful adage that "an asset is worth whatever someone will pay for it." 
  • And Professor Aswath Damodaran offers this math-intensive solution: "The value of equity is obtained by discounting expected [residual] cash flows."


A more honest answer, though, is that we simply never know how much anything is worth. Not exactly, at least.



Yet in real life, we don't allow the lack of an exact answer to stop us from buying. 

  • Humans need shelter, so we buy a house when the price seems fair. 
  • We need cars, so we work from sticker prices and the Kelly Blue Book to pick an acceptable price for those, too.

The same goes for stocks. We shouldn't "measure with a micrometer, mark it off with chalk, then cut it with an axe." 

  • We make our best guess at a fair price (intrinsic value). 
  • We try to buy for significantly less (margin of safety) than our estimation. 
If we guess right more often than wrong, we make money. But where do we start?








Start with common sense

Look in places where you're more likely than not to find bargains:

Low prices: Stocks hitting the new 52-week-lows list may be "down for a reason." Still, a stock selling cheaper today than it's sold any time for the past year is more likely a good bargain than a stock selling for more than it's ever fetched before. 

Read the paper: Newspaper headlines offer another superb place to seek bargains. Remember how oil was selling for $150 a barrel last July? Remember how a few months later, it sold for less than $40? How much do you want to bet that the intrinsic values of oil majors such as ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) or Chevron (NYSE: CVX) tracked those movements exactly? (Hint: They didn't.) Somewhere between $40 and $150, there was value to be had in the oil majors.

Cheap valuations: Another great way to scan for bargains is to run a stock screener every once in a while. I like to look for stocks that trade for low price-to-free cash flow multiples, exhibit strong growth, and have low debt. 


The key point I want you to take away from all this is simple: Trust your instincts.
  • When Zillow tells you your house has doubled in value, treat that "Zestimate" with some skepticism. 
  • When Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) doubles in price on announcements of industry subsidies from China, be wary. 
  • On the other hand, when stocks that have little to do with the financial crisis drop 50% in the space of a year, when stock prices don't match the news they're supposed to reflect, or when you stumble across a stock with a price that looks cheap, you might just have found a bargain.

There is no price low enough to make a poor quality company a good investment.

If you're in doubt about the quality of a company as an investment, abandon the study and look for another candidate.

When in doubt, throw it out.

Abandon your study and go on to another.  There is no price low enough to make a poor quality company a good investment.


The worse a company performs, the better value its stock will appear to be.

Because declining fundamentals will prompt a company's shareholders to sell, the price will decline.  This will cause all the value indicators to show that the price has become a bargain.  It's not!

When the stock is selling at a price below that for which it has customarily sold, you will want to check to see why - what current investors know that you don't.

Telltale signs of good cash generation are dividends, share buybacks, and an accumulation of cash on the balance sheet.

Economies of scale:  refers to a company's ability to leverage its fixed cost infrastructure across more and more clients.

Operating leverage:  The result of economies of scale should be operating leverage, whereby profits are able to grow faster than sales.

Low ongoing capital investment to maintain their systems:

The combination of operating leverage and low ongoing capital requirements suggests that the firms should have plenty of free cash to throw around.

Telltale signs of good cash generation are dividends, share buybacks, and an accumulation of cash on the balance sheet.


E.g.  Technology-based businesses:  A desirable characteristic of technology-based businesses is the low ongoing capital investment to maintain their systems.  For firms already in the industry, the huge upfront technology investments have already taken place.  And the cost of technology tends to drop over time, so upkeep expenditures are minimal.  The combination of operating leverage and low ongoing capital requirements suggests that the technology-based firms should have plenty of free cash to throw around. 



  • Understanding Free Cash Flow (Video)

  • Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/video/definitions#ixzz1yiD0k3ZQ


    1. Understanding Free Cash Flow

     

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