Warung Bebas
Showing posts with label bargain price. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bargain price. Show all posts

Sunday, June 24, 2012

There is no price low enough to make a poor quality company a good investment.

If you're in doubt about the quality of a company as an investment, abandon the study and look for another candidate.

When in doubt, throw it out.

Abandon your study and go on to another.  There is no price low enough to make a poor quality company a good investment.


The worse a company performs, the better value its stock will appear to be.

Because declining fundamentals will prompt a company's shareholders to sell, the price will decline.  This will cause all the value indicators to show that the price has become a bargain.  It's not!

When the stock is selling at a price below that for which it has customarily sold, you will want to check to see why - what current investors know that you don't.

Friday, June 8, 2012

A stock price must past 2 tests to be considered reasonable.

The most important task in buying a stock is to determine that the company is a good company, in which to own stock for the long term. 

However, no matter how good the company, if the price of its stock is too high, it's not going to be a good investment.

A stock price must pass two tests to be considered reasonable:

1.  The hypothetical total return

The hypothetical total return from the investment must be adequate - enough to contribute to a portfolio average of around 15 percent - sufficient to double its value every 5 years.

2.  The potential risk 

The potential gain should be at least 3 times the potential loss.




























To complete these tests, you have to learn how to do the following:

  • Estimate future sales and earnings growth
  • Estimate future earnings
  • Analyse past PEs (check the present PE relative to its usual average PE)
  • Estimate future PEs.
  • Forecast the potential high and low prices
  • Calculate the potential return.
  • Calculate the potential risk.
  • Calculate a fair price.


Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Key Points about Risks

Risk unequivocally exist in investing in any stock  ...

... but important to distinguish between volatility in stock price and business risk ...

... and my point is that none are large or imminent enough to explain why shares are so cheap.
 

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