Warung Bebas
Showing posts with label carlsberg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label carlsberg. Show all posts

Friday, June 22, 2012

Investor's Checklist: Consumer Services

Most consumer services concepts fail in the long run, so any investment in a company in the speculative or aggressive growth stage of the business life cycle needs to be monitored more closely than the average stock investment.

Beware of stocks that have already priced in lofty growth expectations.  You can make money if you get in early enough, but you can also lose your shirt on the stock's rapid downslide.

The sector is rife with low switching costs.  Companies that establish store loyalty or store dependence are very attractive.  Tiffany's is a good example; it faces limited competition in the retail jewelery market.

Make sure to compare inventory and payables turns to determine which retailers are superior operators.  Companies that know what their customers want and how to exploit their negotiating power are more likely to make solid bets in the sector.

Keep an eye on those off-balance sheet obligations.   Many retailers have little or no debt on the books, but their overall financial health might not be that good.

Look for a buying opportunity when a solid company releases poor monthly or quarterly sales numbers.  Many investors overreact to one month's worth of bad same-store sales results, and the reason might just be bad weather or an overly difficult comparison to the prior-year period.  Focus on the fundamentals of the business and not the emotion of the stock.

Companies also tend to move in tandem when news comes out about the economy.  Look for a chance to pick up shares of a great retailer when the entire sector falls - keep that watch list handy.  


Ref:  The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey


Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Investor's Checklist: Consumer Goods


Find companies that enjoy the cost advantages of manufacturing on a larger scale than most other competitors.  One related issue is whether the firm holds dominant market share in its categories.

Look for the firms that consistently launch successful new products - all the better if the firm is first to market with these innovations.

Check to see if the company is supporting its brand with consistent advertising.  If the firm constantly promotes its products with sale prices, it's depleting brand equity and just milking the brand for shorter-term gain.

Examine how well the firm is handling operating costs.  Occasional restructuring can help squeeze out efficiency gains and lower costs, but if the firm is regularly incurring restructuring costs and relying solely on this cost-cutting tactic to boost its business, tread carefully.

Because these mature firms generate so much free cash flow, it's important to make sure management is using it wisely.  How much of the cash is turned over to shareholders in the form of dividends or share repurchase agreements?

Keep in mind that investors may bid up a consumer goods stock during economic downturns, making the shares pricey relative to its fair value.  Look for buying opportunities when shares trade with a 20 percent to 30 percent margin of safety.  


Ref:  The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey



Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Saturday, April 7, 2012

Carlsberg versus Dutch Lady (A Comparative Study)


7.4.2012 3.4.2012
Carlsberg Dutch Lady
Income Statement
31/12/2011 31/12/2011
RM (m) RM (m)
Revenue 1,489.36 810.65
COGS 505.53
Gross Profit 304.47
Operating Profit 216.036 139.372
Financing costs -4.385 -0.919
PBT 220.374 141.553
PAT 167.38 108.082
EPS (basic) sen 54.35 168.88
EPS (diluted) sen
Balance Sheet
NCA 591.354 74.048
CA 369.504 324.465
Total Assets 960.858 398.513
Total Equity 631.049 259.154
NCL 76.033 4.051
CL 253.776 135.308
Total Liabilities 329.809 139.359
Total Eq + Liab 960.858 398.513
Net assets per share 2.060 4.05
Cash & Eq 72.196 193.143
LT Borrowings 0 0
ST Borrowings 22.251 0
Net Cash 49.945 193.143
Inventories 62.538 93.448
Trade receivables 231.108 36.713
Trade payables 214.185 121.831
Quick Ratio 1.21 1.71
Current Ratio 1.46 2.40
Cash flow statement
PBT 220.374 141.553
OPBCWC 253.167
Cash from Operations 197.728 188.290
Net CFO 154.537 161.940
CFI -21.577 -7.135
CFF -162.735 -47.319
Capex -27.701 -10.882
FCF 126.836 151.058
Dividends paid -127.268 -46.400
DPS (sen) 41.63 72.5
No of ord shares (m)
basic 305.748 64
diluted
Financial Ratios
Gross Profit Margin 0.00% 37.56%
Net Profit Margin 11.24% 13.33%
Asset Turnover 1.55 2.03
Financial Leverage 1.52 1.54
ROA 17.42% 27.12%
ROC 28.80% 163.73%
ROE 26.52% 41.71%
Valuation 7.4.2012 3.4.2012
Price  10.74 36
Market cap (m) 3283.73 2304.00
P/E 19.62 21.32
P/BV 5.20 8.89
P/FCF 25.89 15.25
P/Div 25.80 49.66
DPO ratio 0.76 0.43
EY 5.10% 4.69%
FCF/P 3.86% 6.56%
DY 3.88% 2.01%
DIO   (Days) #DIV/0! 67
DSO  (Days) 57 17
DPO  (Days) #DIV/0! 88
CCC   (Days) #DIV/0! -4
 

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